2018-2019 Winter Forecast


Every year the residents of the U.S. are psyched to know the long-range winter forecast. Many rely on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce, many seek the information from the Farmer’s Almanac and still others favor the research of the Old Farmers Almanac. All of these sources and more provide a good yearly forecast on what to expect of the winter season. So what should we expect from the winter of 2018-19?


NOAA is expecting an El Niño period. Known as the ENSO, that includes La Niña, the opposite phase of El Niño, it refers to the fluctuations between atmospheric and ocean temperatures in the central Pacific. El Niña is the cold phase and El Niño is the warm phase. NOAA is predicting a 70 percent chance of an El Niño. This means that things will be relatively warmer than past winters.


As winter progresses into January through March, resort areas are forecasted to witness continued equal to low precipitation averages. Parts of Alaska and the Southern Rockies may see higher than average precipitation in the second half of winter.


Warmer than average temperatures are forecasted for the entire U.S. continuing throughout the second half of the season.


The Old Farmer’s Almanac concurs with the NOAA prediction calling for above-normal temperatures just about everywhere in the country. However, it does forecast a colder-than-normal season in the Southwest.


Since it is expected to be warmer, the forecast calls for more rain than snow. It expects above-normal levels of precipitation for most of the country, except in the Southeast, southern California, the midsection of the country, and parts of Alaska and Hawaii where normal or below-normal precipitation amounts will occur.


The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts below normal levels of snowfall in areas that normally get snow, with the interior West and small parts of the Midwest receiving snowier-than-normal conditions.


The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a “teeth-chattering” cold winter, with plenty of snow. It calls for the coldest temperatures to arrive in mid-February especially in the Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southeast. The chill will be due to an Arctic cold front that will produce gusty and bitter winds, a sharp drop in temperature, and widespread snow showers and squalls along and ahead of the frontal line.


Whatever forecast you believe in, you can certainly expect snowstorms in some regions of the country that will require more use of snow blowers. Therefore, it is essential that you be prepared with a new snow blower or make certain to service your snow blower so that it performs best. A trip to Small Engine Express to buy a new snow blower or to get your current snow blower serviced will be just what old man winter would order so you’re prepared for whatever the conditions.